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López Enciso, E. (2018). Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia. Tiempo Y economía, 6(1), 77–142. https://doi.org/10.21789/24222704.1432
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Este trabajo analiza dos grandes tradiciones en la medición del ciclo económico: los indicadores cíclicos y el cálculo de variables agregadas no observadas (producto potencial, tasa de interés natural, tasa de desempleo natural y tasa de cambio de equilibrio) y de sus brechas asociadas. La primera tradición, también conocida como la visión empírica del ciclo, debe mucho al esfuerzo del nber y tuvo un gran desarrollo sobre todo en las economías avanzadas. En Colombia, se han hecho muchos trabajos en esa dirección. Sin embargo, pocos de éstos sobreviven, con lo cual el país ha perdido un instrumento valioso en el análisis de la coyuntura económica. El presente documento es la primera parte del trabajo completo y narra la historia de la primera tradición.
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