The Macroeconomic Impacts of Expanding Social Benefit Programs: Evidence from Post-Soviet Economies

2026-07-24T09:05:43-05:00

Since the early 1990s, the expansion of social benefit programs has been one of the principal policy instruments used to address poverty, inequality, and social instability in post-Soviet economies. However, the macroeconomy effects of these programs are still the subject of considerable debate, with scholars divided over whether the expansion of welfare promotes inclusive growth or undermines fiscal sustainability. This paper empirically examines the economic effects of the expansion of social benefits in selected Post-Soviet countries in the period from 2000 to 2023. Using panel data from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and national statistical agencies, the study employs fixed-effects and dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) estimations to evaluate the impact of social spending on GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and income inequality. The results suggest that a moderate and targeted expansion of social benefits can promote economic growth, support job creation, and reduce income inequality. On the contrary, excessively high levels of spending—particularly when financed through budgets deficit—are associated with rising inflation and increased fiscal pressures. According to these findings, the role of social benefits in society depends on factors such as the structure of the welfare system, targeting efficiency, and fiscal discipline. This article bridges the existing literature by providing new comparative evidence from transitional economies and highlighting the importance of balanced welfare development that promotes economic efficiency and social cohesion.

Sectoral Value Added and Labor Market Outcomes in Zambia: An Empirical Analysis

2026-09-03T18:33:59-05:00

This study examines the impact of value added of the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Manufacturing, and Services sectors on Zambia’s unemployment rates and employment-to-population ratio. Using World Bank data from 1994 to 2023, the analysis employs Jamovi software for descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and regression modeling. The findings indicate that the value added in the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector is positively and significantly associated with the unemployment rate, implying that growth in this sector does not necessarily translate into job creation, possibly due to low productivity and the prevalence of informal employment. In contrast, expansion in the Services sector is positively associated with the employment-to-population ratio, indicating its stronger capacity to generate employment. The Manufacturing sector exhibits a weaker relationship with labor market indicators, suggesting its limited direct contribution to employment outcomes. In addition, the study reveals distinct sectoral dynamics: agricultural growth is associated with lower employment levels, whereas expansion in the services sector corresponds to higher employment rates. These findings highlight the need for policies that enhance agricultural productivity while fostering the expansion of the services sector to improve labor market performance. By providing new evidence on the relationship between sectoral growth and employment in Zambia, this study offers practical insights for policymakers seeking to strengthen sectoral contributions to inclusive employment growth.

Tiempo y economía

The Macroeconomic Impacts of Expanding Social Benefit Programs: Evidence from Post-Soviet Economies

Sectoral Value Added and Labor Market Outcomes in Zambia: An Empirical Analysis